Nobody lined up to be born in a particular country, filled in a form or made a choice. One morning or one night, we opened our eyes somewhere, and many details of our lives started being written at that moment. Economists sometimes call this the "birth lottery". In this article, we'll use a few concrete numbers to see how far apart the lottery's prizes and losses really are. The figures are based on the UN World Population Prospects 2024 and World Bank indicators; all of them are approximate and appear in rounded form in the game's dataset.
Is the lottery really random?
Which country you're born in is a matter of chance, proportional to how many babies are born in that country that year. About 132 million babies are born on Earth every year. Roughly 23 million of them are born in India, about 9 million in China and about 7.7 million in Nigeria. Turkey, where this site was made, has about 950,000 births a year, a little under 1 percent of all births worldwide. The UK has about 660,000, roughly 0.5 percent. If you rolled the dice and became a random baby, your chance of being born in Japan would be about 0.5 percent. Your chance of being born in Chad would be about 0.6 percent.
These numbers also show how good and bad luck are spread out. Most of the world's babies are born in countries where life expectancy is low and income per person is limited. Being born in one of the few highest-income countries is, statistically, a rare outcome.
Comparing the two extremes: Japan and Chad
According to the game's dataset, a baby born in Japan has an average life expectancy of about 84 years. In Chad, it's about 53 years. The gap is 31 years, longer than a person's entire working life.
| Indicator | Japan | Chad |
|---|---|---|
| Life expectancy at birth | about 84 years | about 53 years |
| Under-5 deaths (per 1,000) | about 2 | about 107 |
| Income per person (PPP, dollars) | about 50,000 | about 1,600 |
| Urbanisation | about 92 percent | about 24 percent |
| Children per woman | about 1.2 | about 6.1 |
The most striking row is child mortality. In Japan, about two out of every thousand babies don't live to see their fifth birthday. In Chad, about 107 don't, or roughly one in ten. Parents in these two countries live with completely different worries in those early years. One may be thinking about which hospital to choose for their child's vaccinations, while the other may be wondering whether their child will reach that age at all. The income gap, meanwhile, is about thirtyfold.
A closer comparison: Turkey and Niger
Does a child born in Turkey, a middle-income country, have different chances from one born in Niger? The data says the gap is large.
| Indicator | Turkey | Niger |
|---|---|---|
| Life expectancy at birth | about 78 years | about 62 years |
| Under-5 deaths (per 1,000) | about 9 | about 115 |
| Income per person (PPP, dollars) | about 41,000 | about 1,500 |
| Urbanisation | about 77 percent | about 17 percent |
| Children per woman | about 1.5 | about 6.1 |
The gap in life expectancy is 16 years. The child mortality rate is about thirteen times higher. Even being born in a middle-income country is a big advantage compared with one of the lowest-income countries. For comparison, the dataset puts life expectancy in the UK at about 81 years, three years above Turkey.
Even within one country, not everyone draws the same card
National averages tell us a lot, but they don't lump everyone together. Two children born in the same country can also have very different prospects. Two factors stand out.
Family income
Two babies born in the same neighbourhood might land in a poor family or a comfortable one. Income affects nutrition, access to health care, how long a child stays in school and what can be done when someone falls ill. In the game, every character gets a family income bracket from 1 to 5, and that bracket pulls life expectancy above or below the national average. Each bracket adds a difference of about 1.8 years. This is a simple approximation of the real gap; in reality, especially in countries with high inequality, the gap between the extremes can be much wider.
City or countryside
Urbanisation rates vary a lot from country to country. In Japan, about 92 percent of the population lives in cities; in Niger, about 17 percent. A child born in a city is usually closer to a school, a hospital and clean water than a child in the countryside. In most countries, a rural birth means longer walks, fewer doctors and fewer opportunities. In the game, whether each character is born in a city or the countryside is drawn according to the country's urban population share.
School and income: how opportunities pile up
After health, the place you're born affects education the most. In low-income countries, some children leave school early to help with the family's work. Carrying water, working in the fields and looking after younger siblings are part of these children's daily routine. The fewer years spent in school, the lower the income a person can expect to earn later. As income falls, the next generation can fall into the same cycle. This chain doesn't work the same way for every child, but at the national level its effect is plain to see.
Between a country with income per person around 50,000 dollars and one around 1,500 dollars, the yearly gap is about thirty-three times. Income alone doesn't measure well-being, but it determines how much can be spent on the health system, teachers' salaries and infrastructure.
Conflict and disaster are part of the lottery too
Another factor that comes with your birthplace is safety. Being born in a conflict zone threatens access to hospitals, schools staying open and families staying together. Disasters like floods, droughts and storms don't hit everywhere equally either. Countries with strong infrastructure get through the same disaster with fewer losses. In the game, characters born in conflict zones see war-related events more often, while events like droughts and floods are more common in lower-income countries.
How the game reflects this
In Birth Lottery, when you roll the dice, one of 70 countries is drawn according to its annual births. Then your family's income bracket, city or countryside, and number of siblings are set. As the life unfolds, the chance of dying is shaped by the country's child mortality rate and life expectancy, while the chances of going to school and finding work depend on the country's income. At the end, your score, along with the years you lived and the choices you made, shows where you stand among 500 random lives.
All of this is a deliberately simplified model. Still, once you run it, you notice something: two characters who make the same choices can end up in very different places in different countries.
What should the numbers tell us?
Some people are born in the same country, even the same family, and live very different lives; individual effort clearly plays a part. But the tables also show plainly that the starting line isn't in the same place for everyone. Knowing this helps us see our own luck more clearly and understand other people's circumstances better.
If you're curious about why countries differ so much, take a look at the article on why life expectancy varies so widely. If you want to roll the dice yourself, head to the game and draw your own ticket.